A new poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics in Ayawaso East suggest that Hajia Amina Adams is firmly in the lead ahead of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) primaries, despite controversies surrounding her candidacy.
The general voters’ poll places Hajia Amina Adams at 58 percent, with her closest contender, Hon. Baba Jamal, trailing at 32 percent. Other aspirants recorded single-digit support.
Further analysis using delegates’ responses to the question of whether Hajia should not have contested due to Iddah shows her support dipping slightly to 50 percent, while Baba Jamal rose to 38 percent. Analysts say this indicates that the Iddah issue had some impact but was not significant enough to derail her chances.
When delegates’ responses to vetting were factored into the predictive model, Hajia’s support climbed to 54 percent, compared to Baba Jamal’s 35 percent.
The NDC primaries operate on a first-past-the-post system, meaning the candidate with a simple majority secures victory. The alignment between general voter preferences, NDC supporters, and delegate responses in Ayawaso East points to a strong correlation that could shape broader party dynamics.
Observers note that if these predictions hold, the outcome will not only determine the constituency’s representation but could also influence the models for the NDC’s leadership race in 2028.
Leave a Reply